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How do you pick the teams that you pick? Options
Hammer
#1 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2005 3:46:28 AM
Eric Heiden


Joined: 9/24/2005
Posts: 2,914
Location: Hawaii

 
For me, I do my research on teams playing in the game I'm betting on, home field advantage, injury reports, stats etc., but it all comes down to the gut feeling. Last year I rode a 7 week win streak on Monday Night Football but it all went downhill after people started riding my bets. Seems like whenever I let people ride my bets, I start losing. But again, for me, its partly research, but mainly, and albeit idiotically at times, on gut instincts. But gut instincts have kept me in the suicide pool I'm in, so I hope the luck continues. What about you?
poocano
#2 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2005 3:55:50 AM
Arnold Palmer

Joined: 9/24/2005
Posts: 14,649
Location: Indianapolis

 
I"m fairly new to the betting thing, but I watch and read what the "so called" experts have to say, then I just go with what my gut tells me.

My only rule is never bet against my teams. (Cubs, Bears, Bulls) I can't bring myself to do it anyways. I just know the one time I do, they will win.



All bets are one unit ($50) unless otherwise noted.
Hammer
#3 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2005 3:59:29 AM
Eric Heiden


Joined: 9/24/2005
Posts: 2,914
Location: Hawaii

 
"poocano"
I"m fairly new to the betting thing, but I watch and read what the "so called" experts have to say, then I just go with what my gut tells me.

My only rule is never bet against my teams. (Cubs, Bears, Bulls) I can't bring myself to do it anyways. I just know the one time I do, they will win.


True, don't bet against the team you root for. Chi-town is a great place for a fan to be though man! I wish Hawaii had a pro sports team to root for damn it! The University of Hawaii is the main attraction here and they suck balls. but will I bet against them? Hell no!
Cold Dog
#4 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2005 6:17:54 AM
Barack Obama


Joined: 9/20/2005
Posts: 16,519

 
For me, it's hard to explain, but I first think about the game and "play it out" in my mind. It may sound bizarre but I visualise the game and get a feeling for what is going to happen. I then check out the odds... If there is some value to be had (based on my own mental ramblings) then I jump on. I do check out the statistics and various write-ups but try not to base my plays on them too much. I think most of the so-called experts are wrong more often than not. The other thing I do is, when I'm "iffy" about a play, I run it by some good punter mates of mine. If they are totally against it, I usually call it a no play.
CptSpandex
#5 Posted : Tuesday, December 06, 2005 9:34:54 PM
Liz McColgan



Joined: 11/3/2005
Posts: 681
Location: Los Angeles

 
"poocano"
I"m fairly new to the betting thing, but I watch and read what the "so called" experts have to say, then I just go with what my gut tells me.

My only rule is never bet against my teams. (Cubs, Bears, Bulls) I can't bring myself to do it anyways. I just know the one time I do, they will win.


One of the main reasons why I never bet in games involving my favorite sports teams. Better yet, I try not to have favorite sports teams, but if you follow a game enough, it's impossible not to develop a preference one way or another. Generally, I just remember that there is no one in professional sports that gives Jack Squat about me or what I do, so why do I care about them? Sports is an outlet for me to make money, nothing more. Personal feelings can cloud the issue and when it comes to professional athletes, I find most of them distastful, pompous, egocentric, and generally absent minded human beings.

Why not make some money on these clowns?

"Cold Dog"
I do check out the statistics and various write-ups but try not to base my plays on them too much. I think most of the so-called experts are wrong more often than not. The other thing I do is, when I'm "iffy" about a play, I run it by some good punter mates of mine. If they are totally against it, I usually call it a no play.


My feeling on expert analysis and spreads is that I wouldn't trust someone at ESPN to gamble my money on a lottery ticket, at a poker table, or at the track, so why would I rely on their knowledge to place my money on the line? Half the time, the analysts are former jocks or coaches networking or lobbying for gigs in the field, or can't see past the things that worked or didn't work for them on the field in their day. And in some cases it's an out-of-work athlete or coach who couldn't cut it in the business, so why would I want to trust his perspective when he couldn't even save his own job with his "insider" knowledge.

Go with what you know and if you hafta rely on a gut feeling go with that too. Because if you don't, you'll kick yourself when/if you make the safe play and lose because you didn't trust your instincts. I landed $650 on the Patriots last year but lost a good portion of that back this fall on the Astros. So be it. I would have beat myself up if I had bet against the 'Stros, a team I felt at the time was considerably better than the Sox, and they had won.
gmoney
#6 Posted : Tuesday, December 06, 2005 10:29:03 PM
Arnold Palmer



Joined: 9/24/2005
Posts: 14,409
Location: Vegas Baby!

 
Whole lotta research,and alot of gut instincts. Take for example this past week. Played 4 games,won 3,and the one I lost,the Rams,I felt the strongest about. Did not figure anyway that the Skins would go into the Dome,after losing 2 in a row at home,and cover,let alone win.
When it's all said & done,luck is a major player in it all
RattMan
#7 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2005 6:51:10 AM
George Best



Joined: 9/24/2005
Posts: 3,886
Location: Tempe and Peoria, AZ

 
When I go to make bets (especially parlays)...I run through the list of games...and if I get a feeling for a winner right away, I will take that team without hesitation. If I get no feeling on a winner within a second or two, I bypass that game altogether.

I would venture to say that I look at stats for about 5% of the games I pick. I almost go completely on my gut instincts...and I never listen to anyone else, because if I did and lost because of it (and went against my own feelings about a game) I would be very upset with myself…

#1 Orlando Magic fan...on EARTH!
Cold Dog
#8 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2005 7:00:39 AM
Barack Obama


Joined: 9/20/2005
Posts: 16,519

 
"RattMan"
When I go to make bets (especially parlays)...I run through the list of games...and if I get a feeling for a winner right away, I will take that team without hesitation. If I get no feeling on a winner within a second or two, I bypass that game altogether.


Very interesting... I try to do that myself. So many times I have had an immediate "winner" feeling - only then to overanalyse another game and bet on it... Of course no prizes for guessing which play wins most of the time.

Good thread...
Keg
#9 Posted : Sunday, December 18, 2005 10:53:00 AM
Mal Meninga



Joined: 9/25/2005
Posts: 1,538
Location: Australia

 
Do you guys ever add in that 'underdog' bet in the parlay to try and boost up your odds? Or do you steer clear of this option and rather lay more down on the bet itself?

Didak Attack
poocano
#10 Posted : Sunday, December 18, 2005 11:56:38 AM
Arnold Palmer

Joined: 9/24/2005
Posts: 14,649
Location: Indianapolis

 
"Keg"
Do you guys ever add in that 'underdog' bet in the parlay to try and boost up your odds? Or do you steer clear of this option and rather lay more down on the bet itself?


I always add an underdog or two to a parlay. The dogs are going to win, it's just a matter of figuring out which ones have the best shot.

But with the way I've been picking lately, I might as well put all the names in a big hat and draw blindly! toilet



All bets are one unit ($50) unless otherwise noted.
microzide
#11 Posted : Friday, January 06, 2006 6:29:26 AM
Linghui Kong



Joined: 9/24/2005
Posts: 898
Location: My room!

 
I use a technique that never misses!

Go to your local grocery/party store, and pick up the game: Pin the Tail on the Donkey!

What ever team you select while blindfolded is SURE to win!
TimM846
#12 Posted : Monday, January 09, 2006 5:47:35 PM
Joe Montana



Joined: 11/12/2005
Posts: 4,468
Location: Tempe, Arizona

 
That is actually a very good strategy for micro, because it improves his usual 25% win percentage to around 50%.

Hey, am I on your list yet?

dajones
#13 Posted : Monday, January 09, 2006 5:53:18 PM
Franz Klammer


Joined: 11/1/2005
Posts: 5,052

 
you guys are making this way too complicated....i have a very simple formula, and it's foolproof.....

you just find out who cold dog is betting on, and bet the other way....

i did this last week with texas-usc, and now i'm a rich man....

Mr. Green
justdabest
#14 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2006 7:04:37 PM
Hicham El Guerrouj



Joined: 1/5/2006
Posts: 2,785
Location: Perth, Western Australia

 
Interesting topic Smile

Like some of you already, I try to mentally picture the game and/or what the post match report will be. FIRST feeling or gut instinct is usually correct. Thinking too long is bad, can't force the feeling. Very Happy Rolling Eyes Next is finding good value...

Even this simple system can be hard to stick to at times. Laughing

GOOD LUCK ALL!
D-Wade
#15 Posted : Sunday, March 12, 2006 7:30:17 PM
Paolo Rossi



Joined: 3/5/2006
Posts: 1,454

 
The gut feeling is very important, I try to look at their home and away records and take that into account. Also if they have just played the previous night, I would add the fatigue factor into the equation. Mostly, the first instincts usually are right.

Unit = $50

Since 4/10/06
NBA (including Playoffs): 18-6 (+19.5 units)
MLB: 23-11 (+8.5 units)
Tennis: 10-1 (+24.0 units)
caitken12
#16 Posted : Sunday, March 26, 2006 2:52:38 AM
Steve Cram

Joined: 2/27/2006
Posts: 925
Location: BC Canada

 
I would like to think of myself as a fairly knowledgeable predictor. However, a lot of my picks are gut feelings. Those guy feelings are usually back with facts and reasoning for my decision. I never pick a team "just because". I do a lot of research, but that can only take you so far. It is a game of luck picking is. This is why a good pick maker only bats barely over .500. Very rarely will you find a guy that can pick 60-65% of the games. It is fun to pick games, especially when other people win money off of your picks, It sucks when they take your advice and they lose though. Oh well, that will teach them for gambling!!

1 Unit = 50$
NHL +1.9 Units
MLB +4.1 Units
Total +6 Units = Happy Wife
gamma
#17 Posted : Sunday, March 26, 2006 11:05:45 AM
Wang Nan

Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 125

 
consider:

1. fitness.
2. attitude.
3. fits in the team and along other team members.
4. statistics.
5. stylish.. Mr. Green
RattMan
#18 Posted : Wednesday, March 29, 2006 10:04:02 PM
George Best



Joined: 9/24/2005
Posts: 3,886
Location: Tempe and Peoria, AZ

 
"caitken12"
I would like to think of myself as a fairly knowledgeable predictor. However, a lot of my picks are gut feelings. Those guy feelings are usually back with facts and reasoning for my decision. I never pick a team "just because". I do a lot of research, but that can only take you so far. It is a game of luck picking is. This is why a good pick maker only bats barely over .500. Very rarely will you find a guy that can pick 60-65% of the games. It is fun to pick games, especially when other people win money off of your picks, It sucks when they take your advice and they lose though. Oh well, that will teach them for gambling!!


I really hate doing research before I make my picks...I really do! I find that when I start looking at numbers, I begin to overanalyze things and then I end up screwing myself.

Ive learned that, for me, the best move I can make is to follow my gut instinct and not think twice about it. There is nothing more disturbing than having a gut feeling about a pick, then doing some research and choosing the opposite…and then watch your pick lose.

If I lose by going with my gut, I can deal with it...if I lose because I went against myself by doing too much research, I have issues with that...

#1 Orlando Magic fan...on EARTH!
D-Wade
#19 Posted : Wednesday, April 12, 2006 6:05:54 PM
Paolo Rossi



Joined: 3/5/2006
Posts: 1,454

 
"RattMan"
"caitken12"
I would like to think of myself as a fairly knowledgeable predictor. However, a lot of my picks are gut feelings. Those guy feelings are usually back with facts and reasoning for my decision. I never pick a team "just because". I do a lot of research, but that can only take you so far. It is a game of luck picking is. This is why a good pick maker only bats barely over .500. Very rarely will you find a guy that can pick 60-65% of the games. It is fun to pick games, especially when other people win money off of your picks, It sucks when they take your advice and they lose though. Oh well, that will teach them for gambling!!


I really hate doing research before I make my picks...I really do! I find that when I start looking at numbers, I begin to overanalyze things and then I end up screwing myself.

Ive learned that, for me, the best move I can make is to follow my gut instinct and not think twice about it. There is nothing more disturbing than having a gut feeling about a pick, then doing some research and choosing the opposite…and then watch your pick lose.

If I lose by going with my gut, I can deal with it...if I lose because I went against myself by doing too much research, I have issues with that...


I agree with Rattman's post 100%. Doing research prior to games has caused me to lose for the past several weeks, while going with my initial gut instinct was right in most of those cases. I think statistics and trends are correct only to a certain point, you can't factor in the randomness and chaos that happens during sporting events...go with your gut instinct, it's usually right.

Unit = $50

Since 4/10/06
NBA (including Playoffs): 18-6 (+19.5 units)
MLB: 23-11 (+8.5 units)
Tennis: 10-1 (+24.0 units)
TimM846
#20 Posted : Saturday, April 15, 2006 2:46:49 PM
Joe Montana



Joined: 11/12/2005
Posts: 4,468
Location: Tempe, Arizona

 
"D-Wade"
"RattMan"
"caitken12"
I would like to think of myself as a fairly knowledgeable predictor. However, a lot of my picks are gut feelings. Those guy feelings are usually back with facts and reasoning for my decision. I never pick a team "just because". I do a lot of research, but that can only take you so far. It is a game of luck picking is. This is why a good pick maker only bats barely over .500. Very rarely will you find a guy that can pick 60-65% of the games. It is fun to pick games, especially when other people win money off of your picks, It sucks when they take your advice and they lose though. Oh well, that will teach them for gambling!!


I really hate doing research before I make my picks...I really do! I find that when I start looking at numbers, I begin to overanalyze things and then I end up screwing myself.

Ive learned that, for me, the best move I can make is to follow my gut instinct and not think twice about it. There is nothing more disturbing than having a gut feeling about a pick, then doing some research and choosing the opposite…and then watch your pick lose.

If I lose by going with my gut, I can deal with it...if I lose because I went against myself by doing too much research, I have issues with that...


I agree with Rattman's post 100%. Doing research prior to games has caused me to lose for the past several weeks, while going with my initial gut instinct was right in most of those cases. I think statistics and trends are correct only to a certain point, you can't factor in the randomness and chaos that happens during sporting events...go with your gut instinct, it's usually right.


Good advice for someone like Rattman who is generally right about everything and the luckiest person on the planet. Bad advice for someone like me because I'm wrong about ABSOULTELY EVERYTHING. The only time I do well is when I research my picks...I've tried going with my instincts in the NBA for years and I've never won until this year when I started researching my picks.

Joonzs
#21 Posted : Saturday, October 24, 2009 3:20:40 PM
Hulk Hogan



Joined: 10/24/2009
Posts: 21
Location: UK

 
For me, research on statistics and forums did a great job but it also depends as a 'gut' feeling maybe right sometimes.
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