Less than four weeks to The Derby and after a handful of supposed trials over the past week there is nothing which has stood out as a winner of the Epsom Classic on the first Saturday in June.
However, all might change on Wednesday after The Dante which, is possibly the best Derby trial, is run at York Racecourse. Despite declarations not being through until tomorrow a quick look at the entries marks it down as another top class renewal. Only one of the entries has a handicap mark of below 100 and with two entries from Aiden O Brien, three entries from Godolphin and others from Sir Michael Stoute, Barry Hills and Michael Bell it should be the race that defines the market.
The favourite at the moment on
www.wbx.com is
St Nicholas Abbey which has to be because of reputation, connections and existing liabilities for the layers rather than his performance on the track as a three year old. Prior to the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket people were claiming him to be the best ever blah blah blah and he disappointed to a certain extent when finishing fifth in the first Classic of the season. His supporters claim that the trip was too short, there was not sufficient pace and his yard were out of form whilst the doubters just had him marked down as another Coolmore hype horse.
I am not sure which camp I fall into but at his current price on
www.wbx.com I would certainly prefer to lay him than back him.
A victory for an Aiden O Brien horse in the race could see him shorten further as they will surely claim
St Nicholas Abbey is better than him. A comprehensive defeat for
Cape Blanco or
Viscount Nelson (whichever is declared with
Cape Blanco looking likelier at this stage) will see further question marks over his position at the head of the market.
Workforce is second favourite on
www.wbx.com at the moment for The Derby and this once raced son of Kings Best is entered for York on Wednesday. With Ryan Moore already `jocked up` it looks likely that he will make his seasonal reappearance and his performance will have a big effect on the market.
The horse who he beat six lengths last year on his debut at Goodwoood, Oasis Dancer, has come out and won the Timeform Millions and has followed that up with a victory as a three year old.
Workforce is out of a sister to Brian Boru, who won the St Leger so the step up in trip shouldn’t prove to be any problem for him.
He will not be fully primed up for his seasonal reappearance on Thursday but with question marks over the favourite I am prepared to use Workforce as a trading proposition. I doubt he will be his current price on
www.wbx.com after The Dante.
The third favourite on
www.wbx.com is
Chabal and at the prices this one interests me the most. He, like
Workforce, is entered in The Dante on Thursday and an impressive performance there could see him vying for favouritism. He has already ran (and won) this season when winning the Sandown Classic Trial and the horse he beat, Azmeel, has come out and won The Dee Stakes at Chester.
Throughout his two year old career he was hyped as the best horse Jim Bolger had ever trained. I considered this to be hype after a couple of defeats but after the performance at Sandown the early hype might be proved correct. It is certainly an interesting claim given than Bolger has trained Finsceal Beo and New Approach to Classic glory in recent seasons. I think he is worth backing for The Derby now as I expect a good run on Thursday.
The fourth favourite on
www.wbx.com is
Midas Touch who won the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown yesterday. The time was certainly impressive but I was not happy with the attitude of the eventual second and think
Midas Touch, despite running well, wont be up to winning The Epsom Derby. His claims further enhanced the chances, albeit on paper, of
St Nicholas Abbey who is rumoured to be the best three year old trained by Aiden O Brien.
The fifth favourite on
www.wbx.com is
Bullet Train who won The Lingfield Derby Trial impressively on Saturday. However, he is far from a certain runner after connections considered him to inexperienced immediately after his victory on Saturday. With Khalid Abdullah already having
Workforce in the race I think his participation will hinge on his performance in The Derby. If
Workforce disappoints then
Bullet Train’s chance of running improves whereas if he runs well then I think
Bullet Train will be kept for another day.
The other two horses who should run in The Dante who are of interest are
Coordinated Cut and
Cape Blanco.
Cape Blanco represents Coolmore and a good performance by him should see
St Nicholas Abbey shorten in the betting. However, Coolmore are known for saddling more than one in The Derby itself and it could pay to look away from
St Nicholas Abbey as his price is looking increasingly short.
Coordinated Cut is definitely of interest. Prior to his debut last year people were already backing him for Derby success this year. He won his debut and then disappointed on his final start as a two year old last year. He was then moved out of Peter Chapple Hyam’s and into Michael Bell’s, who won The Derby with Motivator a few years ago. On his first start for Bell he won the valuable Tattersalls race at Newmarket when staying on strongly to beat Ameer. His fitness is assured but I am not sure he has the class to win a Derby. After Thursday I might have changed my opinion and will leave him at his current price whilst being prepared to take shorter should he run well.
Advice
Lay St Nicholas Abbey
Back Workforce (Lay after race for stake if he runs well)
Back Chabal
The market on
www.wbx.com
Sat Jun 5 - The DerbyThe opinions expressed by Iain Turner and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not reflect the opinions of WBX. WBX is not responsible for the accuracy of any of the information supplied.