Just joined WBX but seems I still can not play the bet here because I am in China

My latest score is start from CNY200 and now reached CNY3800 by bet on soccer games in last 2 months.

Hope can make more friends here and I can publish some soccer game forecast here even I can not play.

For tonight game

Albinoleffe vs. Verona

Bet on Verona @1.34 USD80.12
Bet on Draw @5.4 USD19.88

Then as long as Verona win the game, you can get USD107 back(bet 100 win 107). If draw, you can get back all your USD100 back no lose.

be easier, we can directly bet on Lay - Albinoleffe at 13.5. The return rate is at 7.4%.

For 1 game the odds seems not attractive. But if you keep win. The return will be quite high.

See my last 2 months result, from CNY200 to CNY3800. 19 times increase. Maybe you can focus on my Accuracy first

I will post my forecast here everyday.

Tonight can be Al Hilal vs. Al-Gharafa Lay on Al-Gharafa 17.5 now. Let's see when I lose the game today is 1:1.05. If win your initial USD100 can be 100 x 1.07 x 1.05 = USD112.35 then

the odds to eventually losing are $1.01...

the draw is $1.02

Al Ittihad vs. Al-Arabi Lay on Arabi 13 with 1.08 odds.

Since mid january i have been working 6/8/10/12 hours and more a day, on an in - running database, i am assembling it on a course by course basis going back to mid 2004, i decluttered and repaired the data, the volume of which is ginormous, i have added trainer / jockey / going / and SP data to the basic market data from BF, my backup file is 2.3 gigabytes in size, i only kept data below 4.2 in price, and with above 50 pounds volume traded, there is no duplicate data in my backup files, theres around 8 million usable rows of data, after it is decluttered, i am working in excel prior to linking/joining all the data into one single database at a later stage, the reason i mention this is because i can now clearly see the period of 18 months or so, where i was laying the field in play at 1.03 every race, every day.

i profited by several thousand pounds before busting out.
i staked 6.66 to win 222 pounds every race, my bank was 1k, 150 stakes.

1.03 has never shown a per annum, en masse profit, since those early days of in-play, as a layer.
Technology put the boot on the other foot, still it was nice while it lasted mixed in along with abit of trading, and alittle punting.


there is no money to be made doing what this lad is doing, even IF he has a genuine edge, it will take several thousand bets to distinguish an edge from variance.

and at 100 dollars a pop, he could only ever hope for an EV of cents per bet.

at 1/20 \ 1.05 he needs a 95 percent S/Rate to breakeven.
even IF he could sustain a 96 percent strike rate over 1,000, 100 dollar bets, his EV per bet is below.

960 winners 4,800 dollars profit.
40 losers 4,000 dollars lost.

an EV of 80 cents per punt, he would stake 100,000 dollars in total, for 800 dollars profit.

however he is on the right track looking for a small long-term edge, imo
needs to re-assess, better to have a 2 percent edge at evens [2s] than a 20 percent edge at 1.05

1000, 100 dollar bets at evens with 2 percent edge.

510 winners 2000 dollars profit.
490 losers

an EV of 2 dollars per bet.


i think those figures are sound, but its 5.30 am here and im knackered.

tonight Lyon vs. Nice lay on Nice - 6.2, till now money in hand is USD139.54

oops, now only another 1200 bucks or so, to risk, to win the 61 bucks deficit, to break-even.