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Steve Redgrave  Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,114 Location: isle of man  
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hercul wrote:you almost did it laylow .
pitty
still yet another big odds on fav wich finished almost last.
this game is no sport anymore it is all about getting as mutch money out of the gamblers pockets.
nonsense theres no fucking around with group 1s in britain, there was 300k prize money, you get shafted because you bet in micky mouse races, with less than 2k prize money. its all about value/percentage chance, thats why you keep going broke. its this simple, i gave that horse fully fit race ready, and progressed as expected, a 20 percent chance TODAY, 4/1 sp however i knew she had, had a set-back, so all in i figured at worst a 10 percent win 9/1 sp, 33 percent place 2/1. at 50s when it was 33s the books, it was a steal, to me, 6x the sp chance i had it, and 12x the price for a fully fit and ready horse, the place i had as a 2/1 shot, and the sp was just about treble at 6.6, the french horse i gave 40 percent tops, without going and distance concerns. elusive kate is a special horse, and weve had any large sp we will ever get on her now, if she came through that race ok, then she will go on to prove really special, just as she was a 2 yr old. dont be forgetting that was only the first time she has stretched her legs as a 3 yr old. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9orQhWHRglg.
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,114 Location: isle of man
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Lay Low21 wrote:the french filly looks like she will take all the beating, but at 500 to win 400, i would rather be betting elusive kate, for 8 to win 400 at 50s the exchanges.
i will edit in why the french fillies weakness, should it have 60 percent of the market for this group 0ne, because i dont think so.
3 year old allowances play a big part in this race, 3 yr olds winning 4 from last 6 runnings, stall 4 has produced 3 out of last six winners, 180/1[3 yr old] 6/1 [3 yr old] 16/1,
12/07/2006 UK/Newm 12th Jul Newm 12/07/2006 14:10 1m Grp Rajeem 180
elusive kate was a classy 2 yr old, and if she is fully over her set-back, then this distance is ideal for her 3 yr old debut, no value in the fav in my opinion, the soft going is just another obstacle to her, and the distance a quarter mile to short.
theres real value in gosden and dettori, but theres no more time left to cover anything else now.
so 10 at 50s win, lay back for 35 at 4.1 [3/1]
and 10 the place at 6s.
so 50s when i posted, = 500 - lay back 109 for 35 = 391 left in the win. lay back at 4.1 easy meat stake plus 25 profit, the place at 6s for 10 = plus 50, so 75 gross profit on the race. oh and ps, i told you the distance was to short for the french hotpot,the soft going just made it worse for her, giofra has progressed since april, she was beaten by Cirrus Des Aigles 8 lenghts, and then Cirrus Des Aigles was turned over by 3 quarters of a length end of may by Golden Lilac, on soft, but 2 furlong more, so go figure, ya see thats what makes racing, racing. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Allan Donald  Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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thanks again for the reply laylow I do not think the problem there was the distance or the ground. she was beaten before the off and finished last so or she is heart or they did not train her for the race and had her in the her box for the last 14 days .anyway fuck them I lost yet again a lot and I mean a lot of money today at wbx no luck what so ever latly here. (made some poor bets as well ) but finish the day with a bang Total stake 2200 EUR b'inside 2420Points Status Won Payout ° 6600 EUR Incl. refund 0.00 EUR with this beautifull grey horse 7/13/2012 5:10 PM (GB) Newbury - Race 7 1 Shades Of Grey the sad think is now a days if u wish to have a cetain bet u need to avoid group races and professional jockeys and to bet in the poor apprantice races. just sad still I am happy today.   love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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tommorow the 14the lets go to newbury the 15.10 race I just can not see in this ground with that form to offer how this horse can be beaten. 2] Maarek and the fav is not such a exeptional horse so maarek for me and big and very very big for a place; good luck love horses hate jockeys
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,114 Location: isle of man
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im not sure that win a fortnight ago on heavy is a good or bad thing, good because a class 1 win justified his 29ld rise in the ratings in less than a year, but like last year he has been a busy boy, he won in june 2011 same as this year, newcastle was hard race, i think he will still be abit spent, at 5/2 you could do worse, defo in with a shout if over the win in heavy going, personally i think a dutch of the 2010 race winner, and fourth last year regal parade, along with mirza at around 11/2 now with the books is fair, both are 12/1, should be able to get an 8/1 dutch the pair on the exchanges, still not enough of an edge for my stomach. good luck .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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thanks again for the reply laylow but the last win was a bonus the win at newmarket is realy the one u need focus on . the class act in the race and the godolfin horse is just not at the top of his game . the others are no bad but no real world beaters neither. I always say if the class horse runs his race there is no race but if he doesn't anybody can win and this is the case here.  love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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thanks for the warning laylow I went very very big for a place and just got 3the I think u have been right that marek was maybe toooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo busy latly love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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and there are still guys telling me there is nothing wrong with the uks racing and the form book wich has been presented to us the gamblers and nobody even ask him self how comes each time a horse runs as there is almost no way he coulld lose the horse keeps losing this is what I did today backed one fav very big for a place and one fav at 1.30 to win in a 3 runners race with to mugs in the race u can guess what happend 7/14/2012 4:54 PM Win (Win) (GB) Newmarket - Race 5 1 bet 10160 Open 7/14/2012 4:10 PM Place (Place) (GB) Newbury - Race 3 1 bet 3999 5590 Won yes afocurse the one wich was 1.30 lost over 8 ls fucking arab jockey dettori again love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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thanks god I am still one of the best in the busines this save me Poet 3.50 600 EUR 2100 EUR I had it 3X that bet so got my moeny back and little some .  love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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today at 16.15 at soutwell this horse must be a cut above his rivales and with that draw and with holland up again and this weight he must be a very very good bet. 5(1)iT 6822 Full form Tunnager Grove 6 ATR Tracker b g Piccolo - Violet's Walk 3 9 - 5 D Holland H Morrison last night the secound fav was punching wich he beat last time very very easyly and if he is the form guide no oppositian what so ever. good luck love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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this fucking jockeys must change their names from jockey to pornstar because they keep fucking thousends of punters each day. holland on 2 big fav with a first chanse to win in the form book bouth tailed off ? nice sport this still 5000 up today so to hell with this jockeys love horses hate jockeys
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,114 Location: isle of man
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i had a doctors appointment at 4pm, at around 3.00 i looked at your post and started a reply about how i would rather have 5 pounds at 20s on mazovian to win 100, than 110 pounds the favourite to win 100, with skybet 10/11 at the time, i pointed out the winning patterns of this horse, after pointing out to you about betting in low class micky mouse racing again, anyway after 10 mins of typing and asking you if you thought mazovian should really be bigger than 10/1, and pointing out it was a steal at 20s, i glanced back at betfair, and the fucker was 14s,so i clicked cancel, sprayed some deodorant on my bollocks and went to the docs. [my doc is a woman, and i have hernias, so wasnt sure whether she would have alittle feel or not] pick another race, and lets have a dabble bytheway theres a steamer of brian ellisons at 5.15, his step-son is a well known pro-gambler, at 2/1 its to short to be getting my money. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,114 Location: isle of man
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actually i checked after posting, he owns the horse, i used to talk to him on a daily basis a couple of years ago, his horse hosed up. .
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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yet thanks again for ur time to reply laylow u are a smart gambler I am just a gambler how thinks he know what he is doing . afcourse in this game we all need a little help from trainers and jockeys as well. good think I had this bet as well so I am good for today. Bet Type Win (Win) Bet slip ID 4177961 TSN D413-97A3-ED1D Date 7/16/2012 4:35 PM Bet count 1 Total stake 700 EUR b'inside 770 Points Status Won Payout ° 5110 EUR Incl. refund 0.00 EUR 7/16/2012 3:36 PM (GB) Ayr - Race 4 1 King Of Eden 2 Silver Rime 3 Fieldgunner Kirkup maybe tommorow mate. have a good night love horses hate jockeys
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,114 Location: isle of man
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i have one for you hercul. at 14s/15s now i think this is a sensible punt, anything over 10/1 here today with this one is imo, i think this will go off 8/1 or less. northern bolt, 2.40 catterick, a straight'ish 5f downhill sprint, you want your money on a previous course and distance winner at catterick, that box is ticked TWICE here, only it gets better as it is C D and G [going] here, infact in its long career it has run C and D 4 times, losing by a neck in april 2012 on soft going. clearly demonstrating the ability to still win a micky mouse class 6 here on todays going, this meeting 12 months ago 2011 he won a C and D race on todays soft going, dandy nichols trained this horse in 2009 he ran him twice over this C and D, both times in soft going, resulting a 1st and 3rd, beaten only one lenght. to sum up, 4 x raced CD, 4 x going soft, won 2, a neck 2nd and a lenght 3rd. the 10 draw, in good going is a bad draw, as they track the far rail, when is soft they use the nearest rail making the 10 stall here the plum stall, its an extended 5f downhill sprint, most of them will just be looking at his arse 5 furlongs in , he may get nailed in the extended 150 yds tho. [ what imean is he will take the lead at the furlong pole, with 150 yds to go, thats where he will win the race, but if there is anything infront of him then, it may just stay there ] hailing from a gambling stable you wont be getting 10/1 near the off on this one, so get in now. its no exaggeration to describe this horse as a soft going specialist, this will be its 60th run, and 18 out of the last 21 races have been on soft, good/soft. as a young horse his best time of year was aug/sept, as he has aged the window has widened to include july, frisky old bastard, a gelding mind, still the minds more than willing. needless to say theres others in the race with legitimate cases, but try and make a value call on them at their prices, its a hard one, i think i have found the best value punt, at 10/1, so lay back for stake with any excess above 10/1 ,, ... example, back at 14s lay back stake in-running at 4s, thats traditional odds back 13/1 lay 3/1 for stake. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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thanks for that laylow I was tooooooooo lazy to get my asse out of my couch and come and post that here. I mean what a easy and a nice lay was that fav in the first race at uttoxetter? only cost a 1000 as a horse wich was own buy a sheik in the past and was bought to go and win big prices . I mean who is stupied enogh to back a ex sheik horse resold for 1000£ and wich did not had a run for over 450 days . my best lay ever went all in to lay all over. love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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next race at cattrick llewellyn the best back bet of the day if the horse reproduce any think like last time buyin big money. and if the jockey is any good. get on love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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those fucking death weights jockeys what a bullshit ride from this moran. if u are going to kill ur horse and getting from a bad draw to the secound place ;specialy with a horse who needs a little bit of a cower than rush him up and get cover from the front runner u moran and do not go wide all the time and push the horse out like he is ur 90 years old mother in law what a stupied ride. love horses hate jockeys
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,114 Location: isle of man
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i made an error there, i assessed everything on the stalls being in the 5f shute, where its quite steeply downhill for 300yds to where it joins the track, its virtually a straight 5f dash, but from the extended 5f, which is nearer 6f than 5, the draw was shite and they run up the opposite rail, and its virtually all bend, luckyif 400yds is straight, abit of a red face here. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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no worry laylow if u count how maney bad tips i have given here  my face must be exploting buy now love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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plz go and watch the last race at cattrick 16.40 and plz tell me how the hell eastends lad lost his race the jockey just did not enogh to win mfer. love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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and yet again the next race at uttoxetter. the one horse has been backed from 10 to 3s the other is a easy to back fav guess what in heavy ground fav gives this horse about 12l and 3fs from home and the jockey is still not moving . so u tell me did that jockey ride his horse in that ground to win. if not why the hell he still has a licence. and plz excuse my english wrigting. ty love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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I promis u guys in the next race at sandown pictureperfect is buying money just get on love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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ofcourse I forget u must use yet again the form book to whipe ur asse with it instat to find winners. love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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in the next race at sandown 19.00 I am going very big on this horse [2] Law Enforcement the horse is buy law man wich is doing very very well as a stallion all thoug I do not like richard huges as a jockey I think hannon team must have this one ready for this race today . because from all of his enteries this looks the most easy one to win as the horse can have a nice learning proces and still win. law mans producs are doing very very well in france where u need horses wich go well in soft so the ground is not a problem and I am guessing is even a plus for this horse so [2] Law Enforcement is the one get big on and get ur smiles back if u lose like me today good luck. love horses hate jockeys
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