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20 Pages «<7891011>»
HERCUL is back so lets talk racing and sport again. Options
hercul
#201 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 6:06:18 PM
Allan Donald



Joined: 8/25/2008
Posts: 810
Location: racecourse

 
all the losers on this site and my self we all need to thank that mfing huges again.
peace of shit knew which horse he had to beat and instat to fallow him stayed in the part of the course wich was softer than where the winner run and get beaten because the other jockey was just that less stupied.

peace of dirth



love horses hate jockeys
hercul
#202 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 6:09:10 PM
Allan Donald



Joined: 8/25/2008
Posts: 810
Location: racecourse

 
burn and turn look like 1000000 $

love horses hate jockeys
hercul
#203 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 6:17:55 PM
Allan Donald



Joined: 8/25/2008
Posts: 810
Location: racecourse

 
as each time betting on wbx will finish the day broke with sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much bullshit to have to deal with.
even that last chase race.
16 runners not one of them in the race
the one with no chassing experice and some dogie form at late and a long obsence to over come wins it in a canter that is it for me tonight fuck the jockeys trainers and all those thiefs out there.

love horses hate jockeys
hercul
#204 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 1:29:23 PM
Allan Donald



Joined: 8/25/2008
Posts: 810
Location: racecourse

 
will somebody plz explain to me why the hell is the fav drifting sooooooooooooooo badly in the next race at hamilton????
I am very big at him and do not understand the money for other horses?


hamilton 14.30

love horses hate jockeys
hercul
#205 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 1:34:01 PM
Allan Donald



Joined: 8/25/2008
Posts: 810
Location: racecourse

 
thanks thanks a lot for the great price

I mean 2.10 are u guys mad???

the best think wich coulld happen to the fav was missing the break so he had not to lead and fight for it all the way.

Was not realy sure in that ground if he will stay.Headbang

love horses hate jockeys
Lay Low21
#206 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 4:10:40 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
hercul i will put up one 20s+ selection a day, for a month, 30 selections.

the aim is to have 2 winners [minimum] and 10 free bets.
the sums will work out to 100 percent profit+ on 30 days outlay at 10 pounds a selection, for 2 winners.

sometimes i will be brief with my post, depending on the 'off' time, i wll post mins prior at latest, i will keep forwarding a running total.

todays lively outsider if up for it, is lawful, 5.30 bath, it ran ok first time out in a 6f c4, only dying off in the last 150yds, think this drop to 5f may just do the trick, and at 30s plus, i will happily guess, wth this small time trainer, who it seems is quite good with 2 yr olds.
you can have some nice touches with some small trainers having it right off.

currently 30s, has been high 30s to 46s most the afternoon.

lay off stake in- running with anything above 30s, its now 34s on this edit so lay back at 4.1 still leaves 30 points profit.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#207 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 4:34:56 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
nope a loser, only traded to 5s inplay, but it was piled into, went 23s from 36s in 5 mins before the off.
5.00 £26

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#208 Posted : Friday, July 20, 2012 1:27:24 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
todays lively outsider is.
Masked Dance




i just cannot fathom out why this course/distance/class/soft going winner here in may,is the long - shot no-hoper, 95s the ask for price now.
must be the 2 latest, what appear woeful class2 runs.

14/07/12 In touch, lost place over 2f out.....hampered

14/06/12 Chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out, soon eased and tailed off ... when your beat, your beat, 6th or 15th matters not


11/05/12 1st of 5 8-10 p 83 Asc 6f Sft C3 T P Queally S Dixon Masked Dance

it is only a pound higher, and won a clss 3 this time last year off 87, has won 6 times, 2 on soft, 2 good to soft, 2 on good, all 6 have been at 6 and 7 furlong, 2 class 5s in 2009/11, 2 class 4s 2010/11, and its 2 class 3s 2011/12, its last 2 wins.

its natural dynamo is fully charged in may, 3 wins, and the other 3 wins coming within 6 weeks or so either side of may.

not long gone to a new home, they took full advantage of its may body clock an the natural buzz being in a new yard and new females brings with it, by picking up that ascot class 3 in may, dixon has a 33 percent strike rate at ascot, and the young jockey a 20 percent strike rate.

i cannot see why this horse should go off bigger than 16/1, in this much larger field than the 5 runner affair it won in may, at 90s its a steal.

the money traded is very skinny, however an ask for 85/95s now will get matched nibble by nibble.


i would stake my ten pounds 5 win, ask for 95s, and 5 place at ask for 13s, lay back for 10 in the win market at 10s in-running.


this field of 18 will split down each rail, drawn 4 he should get a nice tow from sitting in behind apollo d negro drawn 2, or brave echo drawn 3, this one could go mighty close if lucky enough to be on the faster rail.

brave echo, went well in this race last year, if they have a going advantage on their rail, brave echo may just do it this time, so i am having 2 pound of tomorrows stake at 55s on that aswell.
Chased leaders, pushed along halfway, chased winner inside final furlong, no impression, kept on for 2nd opened 40/1 touched 40/1

see that ascot may meeting, the 2 large field sprints run on soft going both favoured the low draw.
2012
Victoria Cup 7f
Stalls 2-1-5-8 (24 ran soft)

2011
Jubilee Stakes
Stalls 3-7-11 (16 ran soft)




19/7/12 loss 10 pounds.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#209 Posted : Friday, July 20, 2012 3:27:38 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
funny shit, take a look at the bf chart, in from 110s to 55s in about 4 mins, will drift abit now tho i think, 4 min till off, maybe 75s bfsp, at most.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#210 Posted : Friday, July 20, 2012 3:36:24 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
damn it, street power 22s 1st, drawn 5, next stall, stall 1 second.

minus 12 pounds

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
hercul
#211 Posted : Wednesday, July 25, 2012 3:21:33 PM
Allan Donald



Joined: 8/25/2008
Posts: 810
Location: racecourse

 
keep it up laylow I am sure u will win more than me any way lost yet again my bankroll on wbx in 20 minutes with 3 sure bets.

good luck

love horses hate jockeys
Lay Low21
#212 Posted : Wednesday, July 25, 2012 3:43:15 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
yeah i will, 30 days, 30 lively outsiders, as long as a few are there to dance, i will find 1 or 2 of em.

been decorating, i still am, cant do alot in one go is the trouble, still not to steady on my pins.


i will have an hour on a card if i can find a likely looking race.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#213 Posted : Wednesday, July 25, 2012 5:21:04 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
11/1 dutch here in the 6.55.

i dont think they will see which way this jonstone horse goes.

welingrove .. at 17.5 = 7 pounds win = 113.50

erodium .. at 55s 2 pounds win = 101.00

lay back the jonstone horse in-play for 10 at 2.24

the hannon horse could be anything, he puts 2 in this race every year, his outsider won it last year, you never know, but i think the jonhstone horse is best bet.


19/7/12 loss 10 pounds.
20/7/12 loss 12 pounds


total - 22.00


the johnstone horse is only that price because of the draw, hannons outsider has the plum draw.

the race has been won 2 out the last 3 running from the coffin box, drawn 12 of 12 and 10 of 11 runners, and 3 of the last 5 yrs to low drawn, no mid draws.


.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#214 Posted : Wednesday, July 25, 2012 6:05:04 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
only consolation was i got the likely race right 48 bfsp the winner, i read this about the winner, and at the price it entered my mind.

Kerbaaj has plenty of pace in his pedigree and this looks his trip on his debut.


but trainer jockey combo put me off, 11 visits to track in 5 years and only 2 placed.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#215 Posted : Thursday, July 26, 2012 8:34:37 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
ive edited/redone the post hercul.



hercul i saw bridgehampton in the 2.30 today was favourite, and bottom weight at 8st 2ld in the race, the top weight in the race is 9st 7ld, and its 3yr olds only, also its upped 3 grades, and 3 furlongs in trip, even drifting in price it was going to start in the first 4 in the betting.

i thought lay, straight away as my experience with stats came to the front of my mind, so i had a little look at its profile.


heres some numbers


all races filtered between 2004 and 2011, any age group, any type of race, turf or allweather
the only filters i have used are bottom or joint bottom weight and being in the first 4 of the betting.

result
All Selections 34,714 / winners 6,158 / strike rate 17.7% / returned to level stake per pound backed 84.9p

the horse mentioned above was covered by those 2 filters, now those 34,714 qualifiers filtered by horses that ran 3 grades or more higher than their last run, and a minimum 3 furlongs further than their last run.

49 qualifiers.

result
All Selections 49 / winners 5 / strike rate 10.2% / returned to level stake per pound backed 49.0p



now filter those 49 by those that finished 1st or second last time out, as bridgehampton did.

result
All Selections 44 / winners 4 / strike rate 9.1% / returned to level stake per pound backed 37.5p

23 of those started at 9/2 or less
All Selections 23 / winners 3 / strike rate 13.0% / returned to level stake per pound backed 32.6p

Less than 1-2 run 1 wins 1 s/r 100.0% return to pound staked 136.4p
1-2 to 10-11 run 1 wins 0 s/r 0.0% return to pound staked 0.0p
6-4 to 15-8 run 3 wins i s/r 33.3% return to pound staked 87.5p
2-1 to 11-4 run 7 wins 1 s/r 14.3% return to pound staked 50.0p
3-1 to 9-2 run 11 wins 0 s/r 0.0% return to pound staked 0.0

http://adrianmassey.no-i...g/web1/db3/thaccess.php



the fucker defied the drift to 3rd fav, and the obstacles against, and won nicely, 3 grades up, 3 furlongs up in trip, and carrying 18ld less than top weight.



.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#216 Posted : Saturday, July 28, 2012 2:38:38 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
todays livelyoutsider.

misplaced fortune york 3.45.

late posting so scant write-up, i think it is double the price atleast, to it real odds of winning today.
should be 4th or5th in the betting imo.

28s the exchanges is a steal, lay back in-play 4s for stake.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#217 Posted : Saturday, July 28, 2012 2:53:28 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
19/7/12 loss 10 pounds.
20/7/12 loss 12 pounds
25/7/12 loss 9 pounds
28/7/12 loss 9 pounds


total - 40.00

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#218 Posted : Friday, August 03, 2012 6:26:15 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
linda perret likes a touch im told, got a pair here that can upset the applecart.
7.50
shunkawakan 5pts win, lay back for stake leaving a 50pt win, example currently 70s, lay back at 20s.

berbice same as above but leave 20pt free bet by laying back anything over 20s


will explain why in a longer post.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#219 Posted : Friday, August 03, 2012 6:50:47 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
both run better than their SPs suggest they will at this time of year.

berbice

24/07/2012 17:00 Muss Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 36.67 9.20 77.01%
16/07/2012 15:05 Ayr Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 26.00 9.00 68.00%
08/07/2012 14:30 Ayr Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 29.00 20.00 32.14%
15/06/2012 16:30 Muss Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 17.77 5.10 75.55%
13/08/2011 14:45 Newm Turf 6f Hcap Berbice 50.13 21.00 59.29%
30/07/2011 19:10 Ham Turf 5f Hcap Berbice 8.37 5.90 33.50%
29/07/2011 20:15 Muss Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 10.26 2.48 84.02%
24/07/2011 16:10 Carl Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 9.03 6.40 32.75%
18/07/2011 15:00 Ayr Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 9.88 4.80 57.21%
11/07/2011 15:30 Ayr Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 5.40 1.70 84.09%
09/07/2011 18:30 Ham Turf 6f Hcap Berbice 18.00 7.00 64.71%
03/07/2011 14:45 Ayr Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 14.54 5.00 70.46%
17/06/2011 16:45 Muss Turf 7f Hcap Berbice 6.40 1.86 84.07%
02/06/2011 15:40 Ham Turf 6f Hcap Berbice 20.37 5.10 78.83%


those are its runs this time of year last 2 years, the figures are bfsp, inplay lowest price, and what percentage the price shrunk.


30/07/2012 17:20 Ayr Turf 1m Hcap Shunkawakhan 81.87 5.70 94.19%
23/07/2012 15:05 Ayr Turf 1m Hcap Shunkawakhan 81.62 20.00 76.43%


thats partly why i think they are running better than the SPs appear to suggest, and will be free punts.




.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#220 Posted : Monday, August 06, 2012 3:24:20 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
I like this pair hercul, i see value in both, nice double.

i will spare you all the normal stats as i am busy.


wolves.
6.50 i see you 5s

excellent draw, stepping down in class, and without a doubt her best trip.


7.50 restless bay 6s

won here last time out, all 5 career wins here, this one has never won back to back, but its capable, last years run of win class 6 2nd cl 4 win cl 5 2nd cl 4, shows that.

10pt win double at bfsp

lay back for stake at 1.5 in the 6.50, if it wins, deduct stake and back remainder on 7.50

that should work out at around 16/1 to 18/1 double



19/7/12 loss 10 pounds.
20/7/12 loss 12 pounds
25/7/12 loss 9 pounds
28/7/12 loss 9 pounds
3/8/12 loss 10 pounds


total - 50.00

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
hercul
#221 Posted : Wednesday, August 08, 2012 6:07:30 PM
Allan Donald



Joined: 8/25/2008
Posts: 810
Location: racecourse

 
hi laylow
thanks for all ur effort u put here mate.

but I am very very sure the fav in the next race at sligo must be a nice lay
sligo 19.10 08/08/2012


there are a lot of good horses from good stables with nices pedigrees here who can beat here so get on and lay her and get ur money back;
good luck

love horses hate jockeys
Lay Low21
#222 Posted : Thursday, August 09, 2012 1:34:44 AM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
i think jamie osbourne is on a move with his newcomer in the 2.50 brighton, down 18ld from its winning class 5, rating of 69, 8 months ago, and a 5ld claimer, 23ld down, there not going for the 1600 pounds prize money, and the little lass onboard, she can ride a horse alright.

got a nice draw, down in distance, just joined a new yard, and 20s offered, 22s being asked for now 2.30 am.



ive convinced myself theres a move on here, if he has her fit, and trying, this bet is a goodun.
but the money will come as they gamble, so if it is touch, you will need to get in early doors.
10 win



.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#223 Posted : Thursday, August 09, 2012 12:37:51 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
now 11 hours after my post the price is, 10s offered 11s asked, half the prices they were when posted above, thats a good sign for an osbourne horse, they do like a gamble alright.

this happens often hercul, i see them the night before, and by the next dinner-time the prices have dropped, so i dont bother posting them, i wouldnt have posted the osbourne horse at the price it is now either, 30 bets at 20s plus,2 winners minimum for profit, 1 to break even, was the deal,
only had 6 bites at the cherry so far.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#224 Posted : Thursday, August 09, 2012 1:56:36 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
whoosh one runner sent to brighton on its own, and whoosh theyve had it right off, 10.5 bfsp, the 20s and 22s only traded thin, the whole market had only traded, 34k with only 8 mins to the start.


ffs ive just re-alised, in those other 2 postings, i said everything but the osses name, i was refering ofcourse to 'community'

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
Lay Low21
#225 Posted : Thursday, August 09, 2012 2:29:17 PM
Steve Redgrave



Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,114
Location: isle of man

 
heres 2 that i liked, fair prices at about 10s and 11s, trouble is they both need firm in the going description, so i will watch the first runner 'mount hollow' 3.40, if he wins or goes within a lenght, then i may just bet five star junior 4.10, as the official going description of good, may just be alittle out.

i will watch with interest.

.



Well behaved women do not make history


.
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