Ok, its been a while since I posted my thoughts on UFC betting, but its because I've been lazy. Back on the horse because I think this will be better than UFC 149... frankly any UFC could be better than that, but still, time to relieve the frustration from UFC 149. The co-main events should be exceptional since Dana stated that whoever came out with the more decisive win would get a title shot against the winner of the Jon Jones/Dan Henderson title bout. Its a bit shitty though since Jones has bashed ALL FOUR contenders, but hey, who knows. Machida was able to get in his head a bit for the first round before taking a long nap...


Davis vs. Prado - Match Odds

This is Prado's first fight outside of Brazil, and it will be a tough one. He's an undefeated LHW and from what it looks like on his record, he's a heavy handed striker. I don't know much about the guy, but I'm sure some people would back him at those odds if you look at his record coming in, and the fact that he's a Brazilian MMA fighter. Looking deeper, I find that his 7 opponents (he beat one guy twice) is a lame 18-25, two of the guys he beat have never tasted victory. Phil Davis is still raw, but he's super athletic and his game is getting better. His only loss was in his last fight to Rashad Evans and though it wasn't pretty for him, I believe he learned a lot about what he needed to work on. The only bet I see on this one is to put Phil Davis in a multi/parlay. He won't finish this fight, it'll be a lay and pray type of deal, boring as UFC 149, but he'll get the win. I'm praying that Wagner is good and puts up a fight, but since I have no real info on the guy other than his record, I'm going with what the oddsmakers probably know... he'll lose.


Lauzon vs. Varner - Match Odds

I really like Jamie Varner to take this fight. I've watched many of his WEC fights and this guy will be a top contender for the LW title sometime soon. He usually struggles against submission artists... but usually the ones he loses to have good hands. Joe Lauzon does NOT have good hands. Lauzon is a ground specialist and will need to get this fight to the ground in order to win. I like Varner to use his above average takedown defense to keep the fight standing and bash Lauzon. Varner has a lot of power in his hands and is a very accurate striker, and stylistically, that's who beats Lauzon... real good strikers. It's nearly a toss up price-wise, but I'll take plus money backing Varner in a heartbeat. I don't think this fight will get past the second round. If you can bet on a KO/TKO happening, do it!


Machida vs. Bader - Match Odds

First of the co-MEs, and I think will also be the fight which will produce the next in line for the LHW belt. Machida will dominate this fight, I don't see how Bader will be able to get close enough to take him down. Bader is an excellent wrestler, great strength, great motor, pushes hard, but I don't think he'll be able to get close enough to put Machida down. Machida will just toy with him until he finds his opening and bash Bader badly. Out of these 4 losers fighting for a title shot, I like Machida's chances against Jones the most. Can he beat Jones, not likely, but at least he was able to confuse him for a round LOL!. Machida by KO/TKO in this one.


B. Vera vs. M. Rua - Match Odds

As shitty as Brandon Vera has looked in some of his more recent fights, I think he'll come in strong against Rua. I actually liked him better when he focused on his BJJ more, but his Muay Thai is very strong. If he could just put shit together and focus, he'd have had more success thus far. He's even lazier than BJ Penn, and that fucker is lazy! Vera has a ton of talent, but he's wasted some good years cruising by. Rua will come on the winner in this fight, but it will be a tough fight. Both fighters are excellent strikers and have a great ground game. Both fighters are long as well, won't be much difference in the reach area, and both are Muay Thai fighters. It should be a great battle, but I think Rua is a bit stronger in both areas and prepares better for fights. Rua by decision in this one.

Thanks for the response CD. I think at the moment, with injuries etc, its tough to put together great fights. IMO, Vera and Rua are too similar, doesn't make for a good match up. Bader and Machida make for an interesting one, but Machida will likely bash Bader badly. The Lauzon v Varner fight stylistically could be good. IF Lauzon can get Varner to the ground, it will make for a nice match. With the Davis fight, I'm on the fence. I'm hoping Davis got something out of his last bashing and comes out strong. He's a boring lay and pray fighter, he needs to be more active. Wagner is an unknown commodity ATM and maybe he can push Davis and come out with a win. Like I stated earlier, he is undefeated, however his competition has been far from even average. Hoping for Wagner to bash Davis if possible... LOL But not likely to happen.

The Varner v Lauzon fight was indeed a beauty, definitely my favorite fight on the card... even though I lost a lil $ haha. It was well worth it. Out of the four LHWs who fought that evening, I definitely would have taken Machida as he poses the biggest "threat" if you can call it that, to Jon Jones. But... I'm getting ahead of myself here. CD, you said it yourself, anything can happen with Hendo if he can connect with the H-Bomb haha. I'll never count him out again, but he faces a tough one in Jon Jones.