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My daily ratings.
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£150,000 To The Winner English Greyho...
£150,000 To The Winner English Greyhound Derby
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€153,000 G2 Mehl-Mülhens-Rennen - Ge...
€153,000 G2 Mehl-Mülhens-Rennen - German 2000 Guineas
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US$200,000 G2 Vagrancy Hcp
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US$300,000 G2 Dixie Stakes
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US$150,000 G2 Marjorie L. Everett Hcp
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US$500,000 G2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
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S$1,000,000 G1 KrisFlyer Internation...
S$1,000,000 G1 KrisFlyer International Sprint
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S$3,000,000 G1 Singapore Airlines Int...
S$3,000,000 G1 Singapore Airlines International Cup
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¥202,160,000 G1 Japanese Oaks
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€770,000 G2 Derby Italiano
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US$1,000,000 G1 Preakness Stakes
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G1 JLT Lockinge Stakes
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G2 Middleton Stakes /G2 Dante Stakes
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AFL Round 9 2013
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121Sports
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Racing Discussions
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UK and Irish Horse Racing
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HERCUL is back so lets talk racing and sport again.
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Steve Redgrave  Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man  
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Well 3/4 of a length second bodes well for five star, heres 33 of its 62 career runs, these are its runs where it came into atleast half its sp inplay, a great free bet horse. blue bfsp, blue inplay lowest traded, green the amount of points it shortened by, same for all rows 11/02/2012 14:45 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 6f Hcap 0 12.50 3.70 8.8012/11/2011 14:50 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 6f Listed 0 15.77 6.00 9.77 26/08/2011 15:40 Five Star Junior Turf FfosL 6f Hcap 0 30.00 3.10 26.90 15/07/2011 19:25 Five Star Junior Turf Newm R 5f Cond Stks 0 12.50 1.52 10.98 17/06/2011 16:00 Five Star Junior Turf Redc L 6f Hcap 0 5.54 1.44 4.10 01/05/2011 15:50 Five Star Junior Turf Newm R 6f Hcap 0 60.00 7.00 53.00 06/04/2011 14:50 Five Star Junior Turf Nott L 5f Cond Stks 0 4.32 2.20 2.12 26/03/2011 14:00 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 5f Listed 0 15.44 2.02 13.42 26/02/2011 15:10 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 6f Listed 0 19.50 7.80 11.70 19/02/2011 16:00 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 6f Hcap 1 7.22 1.01 6.21 22/01/2011 15:40 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 6f Hcap 0 4.62 1.33 3.29 27/09/2010 16:10 Five Star Junior A/W Kemp R 6f Hcap 0 12.81 6.00 6.81 30/07/2010 14:45 Five Star Junior Turf Good R 6f Hcap 0 68.01 28.00 40.01 17/07/2010 17:15 Five Star Junior Turf Newm R 5f Hcap 1 6.22 1.10 5.12 08/07/2010 16:55 Five Star Junior Turf Newm R 5f Hcap 0 9.86 5.60 4.26 18/06/2010 16:00 Five Star Junior Turf Redc L 6f Hcap 0 8.80 1.94 6.86 26/05/2010 16:25 Five Star Junior Turf Ayr L 5f Hcap 1 8.80 1.01 7.79 15/05/2010 15:40 Five Star Junior Turf Newb L 6f Hcap 0 17.20 4.00 13.20 01/05/2010 19:50 Five Star Junior Turf Donc L 6f Hcap 0 13.43 5.00 8.43 13/03/2010 16:35 Five Star Junior A/W Wolv L 6f Hcap 0 44.52 14.00 30.52 28/12/2009 16:45 Five Star Junior A/W Wolv L 6f Hcap 0 11.80 4.10 7.70 14/11/2009 15:05 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 6f Cond Stks 0 5.15 1.25 3.90 15/08/2009 15:25 Five Star Junior Turf Newm R 6f Hcap 0 10.82 4.00 6.82 08/08/2009 16:05 Five Star Junior Turf Ascot R 6f Hcap 0 12.36 2.58 9.78 30/05/2009 15:30 Five Star Junior Turf Donc L 6f Class Stks 0 12.39 4.20 8.19 29/04/2009 16:30 Five Star Junior Turf Ascot R 6f Listed 0 22.33 2.84 19.49 28/03/2009 14:25 Five Star Junior A/W Kemp R 6f Hcap 0 3.42 1.11 2.31 04/02/2009 15:35 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 6f Hcap 1 2.38 1.01 1.37 25/01/2009 15:25 Five Star Junior A/W Wolv L 6f Hcap 1 3.10 1.01 2.09 17/01/2009 14:20 Five Star Junior A/W Ling L 6f Hcap 1 3.67 1.01 2.66 07/01/2009 13:55 Five Star Junior A/W Kemp R 6f Mdn Stks 1 2.74 1.01 1.73 17/12/2008 18:50 Five Star Junior A/W Kemp R 7f Nursery 0 17.44 6.40 11.04 15/10/2008 19:50 Five Star Junior A/W Kemp R 6f Nursery 0 15.54 2.26 13.28 .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Allan Donald  Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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today lively outsider is legal legacy 3,50 brighton. this on paper is a tad short a distance for this hoss, but brighton is a tough track, lots of stamina required, this horse has that in this grade, trained locally i think it will be punted. the cats already out of the bag in that sense, trading in the 40s last night for small change the early greedy muppets who got 50s/55s and all prices down to the 20s it is now have fucked it as a value punt, it will bounce out, as its still 20s with some books. if you cannot get 30s pre-race then you will get it in-running, plenty of early pace horses in this, should insure that he drifts in price, as i see this horse swooping in near the finish, its a tough stamina sapping uphill finish, thats the key in my opinion. here are his winning runs, sp in blue highest price matched in-play green. 23/05/2012 17:00 Legal Legacy A/W Ling L polytrack [quite fast ] 7f Claim Stks 1 4.10 6.20Switched left soon after start, held up in touch in rear, ridden and rapid headway entering final furlong, ran on to lead final strides opened 9/2 touched 9/2 16/05/2012 13:50 Legal Legacy A/W Ling L polytrack [quite fast ] 1m Claim Stks 1 3.60 21.00Steadied start, took keen hold, held up in rear, ridden over 2f out, good headway between horses over 1f out, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on well opened 3/1 touched 10/3 24/06/2011 17:40 Legal Legacy Turf Donc 7f Hcap 1 5.21 9.20Towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on opened 6/1 touched 6/1 04/09/2010 14:25 Legal Legacy Turf Thirsk 1m Hcap 1 5.60 8.00Tracked leaders, not much room well over 1f out, switched right entering final furlong, led inside final furlong, held on well opened 4/1 touched 9/2 26/06/2009 16:35 Legal Legacy Turf Donc 7f Hcap 1 3.80 4.10Held up, headway 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, ran on final furlong opened 7/2 touched 7/2 £1400-£400 06/06/2009 17:15 Legal Legacy Turf Muss 7f Hcap 1 2.12 2.64Held up, headway 3f out, soon ridden, stayed on to lead towards finish opened 2/1 touched 9/4 19/05/2009 14:50 Legal Legacy Turf Muss 7f Hcap 1 4.45 9.80Mid-division, ridden over 2f out, good headway final furlong to lead close home opened 11/4 touched 3/1 £1050-£300 £1500-£500 £1100-£400 all but one winning run lengthened in price by 50 percent or more in-play. so i would wait and see, if the price gets silly short for his genuine chance, which is about 9 percent imo, 11/1, so you want 20s minimum, 25s and you have a deal, 30s and your stealing value. 8 win 2 place. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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my tip is shorter just lay the next fav at brighton Another Citizen the draw is bad compitation is great and he needs soft so lay lay lay love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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poor horse not even placed. love horses hate jockeys
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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well done. only part i got right was it lengthening in price in-play, went out to a 1000, trouble is it stayed there. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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todays lively outsider. spiders star 8.20 thirsk turned out quickly after what was only a public gallop a muss a few days ago, this one has potential, young teasdale is a good value claimer, and takes 7ld off, in this female combo of horse and jockette. back at a rating lower than it has won at previously, course/distance and going previously successful at, a stone and a half lighter than the fav, won at a higher class in 3 of its 5 wins, draw immaterial due to race distance, and 20s with the books, well skybet atleast, the exchanges market hasnt taken any shape yet, but due to this ones hold up running style, it has drifted from sp in all 5 of its wins inplay, stick a keep bet in at 50s, will get matched at some point. 10 win, will post lay-back for stake price later when market forms. 1- 19/7/12 loss 10 pounds.
2- 20/7/12 loss 12 pounds
3- 25/7/12 loss 9 pounds
4- 28/7/12 loss 9 pounds
5- 3/8/12 loss 10 pounds
6- 6/8/12 loss 10 pounds7- 9/8/12 profit 95 pounds - 10.5 bfsp - posted when 20s+ 8- 10/8/12 loss 10 pounds9- 10- 11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24- 25- 26- 27- 28- 29- 30- profit +25 pts .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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bytheway hercul seeing as i am keeping account of my advices in your thread i think it only fair i quote a profit loss amount for all tips i have put here, to a 10pt stake, previously to starting my 30 tips sorta personal challenge. i joined your thread on page 4 with this post. Lay Low21 wrote:I found a race that looks good to me 1.05 don.
fav darenger is drifting so lay now at 2.16
theology is steaming so a lay offer of 3.25 now
i think gores island at 22s is tremendous value. so is a back to 1pt.
this is my staking plan
barenger 0.6 pt lay at 2.16 = liability 1.3 pts
theology 0.4 pt lay at 3.25 = liability 1.3 pts
gores island 1pt back at 22s is 22 pts profit, and a 0 pts profit or loss on any other runner.
the 2 lays are paying for the back bet and subsidising one another, liability on both [race] is 1.3pts
theres 3 others i think could win aswell so it makes sense to me to lay the front 2 in the market, and have a 1pt free bet on gores island who i think has the best chance.
then this Lay Low21 wrote:whooooooooooosssssshhhh wins doing hand-stands 20s bfsp Selection Odds Stake(£  Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£ Gores Island 19.00 11.00 Back 11-Jan-12 13:01 198.00 Gores Island 28.00 3.00 Back 11-Jan-12 13:07 81.00 11/1/12 profit 200ptsthen this Lay Low21 wrote:try for the hatrick hercul
Pacco
24 £1.48 £34.04
Ref: 17840599825 Bet matched:14:19 11-Jan-12
24 £9.52 £218.96
Ref: 17840599825 Bet matched:14:19 11-Jan-12
edit
close but no cigar bfsp 25s
2nd traded below evens in play
1.77 £175
1.78 £696
1.79 £42
1.80 £9
1.81 £36
1.82 £12
1.83 £17
1.85 £22
1.88 £60
1.89 £38
1.90 £63
1.91 £10
1.92 £17
1.93 £24
1.96 £47
1.97
2.00 £1,862
11/1/12 profit 200pts11/1/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negatetotal profit 200pts Lay Low21 wrote:having a dabble on hever road hurcul, trying for 30s thats value imo.
Hever Road 30 £11.00 £319.00
Ref: 17841720196 Bet matched:15:20 11-Jan-12 11/1/12 profit 200pts11/1/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate11/1/12 loss 10ptstotal profit 190pts Lay Low21 wrote:i will do the counting later hurcul.
straight gamble on the trainers here, they aint there for 1700 first prize.
Reasonable Force 30 £3.00 £87.00
Ref: 17842095905 Bet matched:15:43 11-Jan-12
Vintage Times
17 £0.43 £6.88
Ref: 17842040109 Bet matched:15:35 11-Jan-12
17 £0.57 £9.12
Ref: 17842040109 Bet matched:15:35 11-Jan-12
17 £3.00 £48.00
Ref: 17842040109 Bet matched:15:35 11-Jan-12
17 £3.00 £48.00
Ref: 17842040109 Bet matched:15:35 11-Jan-12
17 £4.00 £64.00
Ref: 17842040109 Bet matched:15:35 11-Jan-12
17.5 £4.00 £66.00
Ref: 17842008248 Bet matched:15:33 11-Jan-12 11/1/12 profit 200pts11/1/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate11/1/12 loss 10pts11/1/12 loss 10pts [5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] total profit 180pts right thats pages 4 and 5 done, i also showed you 2 after-time bets i had placed of 20s+ plus winners, they dont count. page 6. Lay Low21 wrote:4th race carlisle.
at 44s now bf, solar spirit is great value, despite the same visit to carlisle last year being a disapointment, before a second visit in july, where kelly was aboard to take a claiming race.
i think kelly is a cunt, and i have no idea if this horse is a non-jigger or not, if its trying today, then its great value, running well last few weeks.
this is a class 4 mind, not a micky mouse claimer, but theres 14k the winner and its on its highest rating since a 3 yr old, theres nothing in distance / class / or going to worry about.
24 Jul 2011 Carlisle 1m Good Turf Flat 1/8 Shane B. Kelly -
22 Jun 2011 Carlisle 1m Good to Soft Turf Flat 8/16 Franny Norton Lay Low21 wrote:close but no cigar hercul, free bet tho at those lay-off, prices.
it was trying today afterall, at 44.58
1.56 £310
1.57 £6
1.61 £400
1.62 £353
1.63 £1
1.64 £198
1.67 £48
1.69 £129
1.70 £6
1.71 £65
1.72 £303
1.73 £69
1.74 £18
1.75 £3
1.76 £26
1.77 £4
1.78 £29
1.80 £186
1.81 £52
1.83 £7
1.84 £25
1.85 £4
1.87 £23
1.88 £11
1.93 £6
1.99 £3
2.00 £203
2.02 £64
2.04 £160
2.08 £200
2.10 £133
2.12 £11
2.14 £132
2.16 £502
2.18 £20
2.20 £31
2.22 £86
2.24 £299
2.26 £900
2.28 £562
2.30 £45
2.32 £60
2.34 £2
2.36 £24
2.40 £44
2.42 £1
2.44 £32
2.46 £3
2.50 £29
2.52 £8
2.56 £7
2.58 £7
2.60 £6
2.66 £1
2.68 £12
2.70 £136
2.72 £96
2.74 £60
2.76 £2
2.80 £26
2.82 £111
2.84 £7
2.86 £1
2.88 £1
3.00 £237 11/1/12 profit 200pts11/1/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate11/1/12 loss 10pts11/1/12 loss 10pts [5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] 27/6/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negatetotal profit 180pts Lay Low21 wrote:today is the day the handbrake comes of rock of deauville. 3.10 muss.
she has raced this ex nichols jumper 3 times over the flat since jan.
plum last all 3, got a jockey for a gamble up, and going/distance to siut, the horse just cannot be as bad as theyve shown it to be, and 21LD drop in ratings, and down in class 6, and above 10/1, will do for me.
look at its french flat form before going to nichols.
29 May 2010 Chateaubriant 1m5f Good Turf Flat 1/15 - - - - - -
23 Apr 2010 Chateaubriant 1m5f Good to Soft Turf Flat 1/16 - - - - - -
28 Mar 2010 Lisieux 1m5f Soft Turf Flat 2/14
edit, just read timeforms assessment below.
Fair form on Flat at 3 yrs in France, winning maiden and minor event. Lost his way over hurdles for Paul Nicholls and shaped like a horse with problems at Haydock 4 weeks ago, so one to avoid.
im ignoring their advice, if its a non jigger today, i will back it blind in future for stakes retrieval atleast [ just another on the list ].
this horse will definately win a mickey mouse race, at a decent price for sure with this trainer at some point. 11/1/12 profit 200pts11/1/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate11/1/12 loss 10pts11/1/12 loss 10pts [5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] 27/6/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate29/61/12 loss 10ptstotal profit 170pts 30/6/12 non runner so no need to quote first one. Lay Low21 wrote:damnit, that was a non runner hercul.
heres another with plenty of stats in its favour.
living it large 4.15 chester.
was trading 34/36s when i noticed it last night.
i love otsiders like this, 24.14 percent strike rate on 29 runs, 7 wins, 43 point level stake career profit.
jockey has a 1 in 5 course strike rate trainer 1 in 4 s/r.
horse has done all its winning in class 4, but has gone close in class 3s tho.
the horses natural/nervous energy is high in june/july, runs well.
distance/going are all right, draw could of been better, its rating of 86 is fair, yes a good bet if you got some of the 30s plus.
same race, the dandy nichols horse crimea, a horse with a career level stakes loss, and only 3 wins.
all its 3 wins and 5 places have been end of june beginning of july, another one with a fully charged natural nervous energy right now, only ever placed in class 3 tho.
you could of had some 50s and 60s last night about this one aswell.
anyway the bad draw with this one makes a place bet the prefered option currently 9s is avaliable, and 9s a place with this one is a value bet.
11/1/12 profit 200pts11/1/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate11/1/12 loss 10pts11/1/12 loss 10pts [5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] 27/6/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate29/6/12 loss 10pts30/6/12 loss 10pts[5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] total profit 160pts page 7 2 losing tips then this post Lay Low21 wrote:the french filly looks like she will take all the beating, but at 500 to win 400, i would rather be betting elusive kate, for 8 to win 400 at 50s the exchanges.
i will edit in why the french fillies weakness, should it have 60 percent of the market for this group 0ne, because i dont think so.
3 year old allowances play a big part in this race, 3 yr olds winning 4 from last 6 runnings, stall 4 has produced 3 out of last six winners, 180/1[3 yr old] 6/1 [3 yr old] 16/1,
12/07/2006 UK/Newm 12th Jul Newm 12/07/2006 14:10 1m Grp Rajeem 180
elusive kate was a classy 2 yr old, and if she is fully over her set-back, then this distance is ideal for her 3 yr old debut, no value in the fav in my opinion, the soft going is just another obstacle to her, and the distance a quarter mile to short.
theres real value in gosden and dettori, but theres no more time left to cover anything else now.
so 10 at 50s win, lay back for 35 at 4.1 [3/1]
and 10 the place at 6s.
followed by this Lay Low21 wrote:fuck me, she went close for a 50s pop.
48 £2,199
50 £352
55 £2
1.6 £226
1.61 £2 £410
1.62 £211
1.63 £23
1.64 £11
1.65 £38
1.66 £41
1.67 £44
1.68 £67
1.69 £10
1.7 £95
1.71 £133
1.72 £52 £50
1.73 £22
1.75 £40
1.76 £216
1.77 £495
1.78 £43
1.79 £33
1.8 £298
1.81 £20
1.82 £6
1.84 £88
1.85 £79
1.86 £259
1.87 £15
1.88 £60
1.89 £42
1.9 £86
1.91 £10
1.92 £15
1.97 £3
2 £2,563
2.02 £276
2.04 £379
2.06 £451
2.08 £141
2.1 £131
2.12 £85
2.16 £1
2.18 £75
2.20 £16 £124
2.22 £240
2.24 £6
2.26 £1
2.3 £459
2.32 £122
2.34 £90
2.36 £38 £59
2.38 £258
2.4 £10
2.42 £38
2.44 £11
2.46 £12
2.48 £23
2.5 £44
2.52 £61
2.56 £88
2.58 £19
2.6 £12
2.62 £0
2.64 £0
2.66 £15
2.68 £31
2.7 £43
2.72 £215
2.74 £33
2.76 £956
2.78 £608
2.8 £97
2.82 £32
2.84 £23
2.86 £12
2.88 £57
2.9 £503
2.92 £27
2.94 £31
2.96 £9
2.98 £144
3 £1,214
3.05 £89
3.1 £21
3.15 £109
3.20 £12 £123
3.25 £160
3.3 £285
3.35 £78
3.4 £121
3.45 £40
3.5 £135
3.55 £158
3.6 £101
3.65 £6 £62
3.7 £40
3.75 £14
3.8 £25
3.85 £4
3.9 £35
3.95 £24
4 £738
4.1 £119 11/1/12 profit 200pts11/1/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate11/1/12 loss 10pts11/1/12 loss 10pts [5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] 27/6/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate29/6/12 loss 10pts30/6/12 loss 10pts[5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] 4/7/12 loss 10pts4/7/12 loss 10pts13/7/12 profit 75pts layback 25pts profit, place payed/wontotal profit 215ptsLay Low21 wrote:i have one for you hercul.
at 14s/15s now i think this is a sensible punt, anything over 10/1 here today with this one is imo, i think this will go off 8/1 or less.
northern bolt, 2.40 catterick, a straight'ish 5f downhill sprint, you want your money on a previous course and distance winner at catterick, that box is ticked TWICE here, only it gets better as it is C D and G [going] here, infact in its long career it has run C and D 4 times, losing by a neck in april 2012 on soft going.
clearly demonstrating the ability to still win a micky mouse class 6 here on todays going, this meeting 12 months ago 2011 he won a C and D race on todays soft going, dandy nichols trained this horse in 2009 he ran him twice over this C and D, both times in soft going, resulting a 1st and 3rd, beaten only one lenght.
to sum up, 4 x raced CD, 4 x going soft, won 2, a neck 2nd and a lenght 3rd.
the 10 draw, in good going is a bad draw, as they track the far rail, when is soft they use the nearest rail making the 10 stall here the plum stall, its an extended 5f downhill sprint, most of them will just be looking at his arse 5 furlongs in , he may get nailed in the extended 150 yds tho.
[ what imean is he will take the lead at the furlong pole, with 150 yds to go, thats where he will win the race, but if there is anything infront of him then, it may just stay there ]
hailing from a gambling stable you wont be getting 10/1 near the off on this one, so get in now.
its no exaggeration to describe this horse as a soft going specialist, this will be its 60th run, and 18 out of the last 21 races have been on soft, good/soft.
as a young horse his best time of year was aug/sept, as he has aged the window has widened to include july, frisky old bastard, a gelding mind, still the minds more than willing.
needless to say theres others in the race with legitimate cases, but try and make a value call on them at their prices, its a hard one, i think i have found the best value punt, at 10/1, so lay back for stake with any excess above 10/1 ,, ... example, back at 14s lay back stake in-running at 4s, thats traditional odds back 13/1 lay 3/1 for stake. 11/1/12 profit 200pts11/1/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate11/1/12 loss 10pts11/1/12 loss 10pts [5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] 27/6/12 profit/loss 0 layback would negate29/6/12 loss 10pts30/6/12 loss 10pts[5pts each, just like i have split stakes in the 30 tips] 4/7/12 loss 10pts4/7/12 loss 10pts13/7/12 profit 75pts layback 25pts profit, place payed/won18/7/12 loss 10ptstotal profit 205pts................... right that was 200+pts profit in there now we start again with 30 tips of which ive had 8 Lay Low21 wrote:hercul i will put up one 20s+ selection a day, for a month, 30 selections.
the aim is to have 2 winners [minimum] and 10 free bets.
the sums will work out to 100 percent profit+ on 30 days outlay at 10 pounds a selection, for 2 winners.
sometimes i will be brief with my post, depending on the 'off' time, i wll post mins prior at latest, i will keep forwarding a running total.
todays lively outsider if up for it, is lawful, 5.30 bath, it ran ok first time out in a 6f c4, only dying off in the last 150yds, think this drop to 5f may just do the trick, and at 30s plus, i will happily guess, wth this small time trainer, who it seems is quite good with 2 yr olds.
you can have some nice touches with some small trainers having it right off.
currently 30s, has been high 30s to 46s most the afternoon.
lay off stake in- running with anything above 30s, its now 34s on this edit so lay back at 4.1 still leaves 30 points profit. 1- 19/7/12 loss 10 pounds.2- 20/7/12 loss 12 pounds3- 25/7/12 loss 9 pounds4- 28/7/12 loss 9 pounds5- 3/8/12 loss 10 pounds6- 6/8/12 loss 10 pounds7- 9/8/12 profit 95 pounds - 10.5 bfsp - posted when 20s+8- 10/8/12 loss 10 pounds9- 10- 11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24- 25- 26- 27- 28- 29- 30- profit +25 ptsall prices to bfsp, even tho ALL were tipped early, and at larger prices. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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Lay Low21 wrote:todays lively outsider.
spiders star 8.20 thirsk turned out quickly after what was only a public gallop a muss a few days ago, this one has potential, young teasdale is a good value claimer, and takes 7ld off, in this female combo of horse and jockette.
back at a rating lower than it has won at previously, course/distance and going previously successful at, a stone and a half lighter than the fav, won at a higher class in 3 of its 5 wins, draw immaterial due to race distance, and 20s with the books, well skybet atleast, the exchanges market hasnt taken any shape yet, but due to this ones hold up running style, it has drifted from sp in all 5 of its wins inplay, stick a keep bet in at 50s, will get matched at some point.
10 win, will post lay-back for stake price later when market forms.
1- 19/7/12 loss 10 pounds.
2- 20/7/12 loss 12 pounds
3- 25/7/12 loss 9 pounds
4- 28/7/12 loss 9 pounds
5- 3/8/12 loss 10 pounds
6- 6/8/12 loss 10 pounds
7- 9/8/12 profit 95 pounds - 10.5 bfsp - posted when 20s+
8- 10/8/12 loss 10 pounds
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profit +25 pts you cant get better than 12/1 skybet now, 16s the exchanges, you will get 25s in-running if you didnt get any before, layback for 50pts inplay at 1.5 .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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rock of deuville is running here, i said i would chase stakes on this one so 2pts win 28s 7.50 thirsk, layback at 2.5 for 12 pts this post below. today is the day the handbrake comes of rock of deauville. 3.10 muss. she has raced this ex nichols jumper 3 times over the flat since jan. plum last all 3, got a jockey for a gamble up, and going/distance to siut, the horse just cannot be as bad as theyve shown it to be, and 21LD drop in ratings, and down in class 6, and above 10/1, will do for me. look at its french flat form before going to nichols. 29 May 2010 Chateaubriant 1m5f Good Turf Flat 1/15 - - - - - - 23 Apr 2010 Chateaubriant 1m5f Good to Soft Turf Flat 1/16 - - - - - - 28 Mar 2010 Lisieux 1m5f Soft Turf Flat 2/14 edit, just read timeforms assessment below. Fair form on Flat at 3 yrs in France, winning maiden and minor event. Lost his way over hurdles for Paul Nicholls and shaped like a horse with problems at Haydock 4 weeks ago, so one to avoid. im ignoring their advice, if its a non jigger today, i will back it blind in future for stakes retrieval atleast [ just another on the list ]. this horse will definately win a mickey mouse race, at a decent price for sure with this trainer at some point. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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look at the chart for it, like a skislope into 16s, bouncing back out now ttho literaly 26s into 16s in 4 mins or so. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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think ive found a likely race hercul 5.25 ayr. perret has 4 in here, slippier than a sack of snakes she is, been quiet lately, fortnight since a winner, if i had to just pick one for a touch horse, it would be lees one, simply because he is a good touch jockey,, but i dont only have to choose one, as they can be dutched now for just 2pts of my daily ten, at 36s 36s 60s, back 0.8pt 0.8pt and 0.4pt, i think thats around 14/1, returns around 28pts if one wins, not bad insurance value, cos she is due one, and has a lass up on the shorty price second fav, and ofcourse if THAT one is a non-trier, then its false place in the market has kept the others prices higher, dont forget this is only a shitty class 6, they are probably all capable of winning this on their day even the old boys. and those prices will get much bigger before the off, giving atleast a 20/1 dutch, one may shorten but then 2 lenghten, so there will be no problem getting 14/1 atleast now the one i like is due one anytime soon, as long as theres no soft in the going description, all his 5 wins have been a grade higher than this, not the usual price range i go for but 13s now there exchanges. angelo poliziano theres been some money early for it 14s into 10s the books, and i can see why, i usually swerve what i think ive missed the value on, but i still think this is a good bet here today atleast, so i lost 2 of todays points yesterday, so 5pts win 13s, lay-back inplay at 2s for 25pts. and just to add abit of fun to the race, a 1pt exacta, weetentherty angelo poliziano .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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a minute to the off, weetentherty now 20s and angelo out to 20s, weetentherty was the one at 60s when i posted at dinnertime. all her outsiders have shortened, and her shortie has gone from 6s to 9.4s+ .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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hi guys I just can not see this fav lose in the next at beverly [1] Bogsnog love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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hi guys very very busy day of racing today so lets see if we can get some profiet the first race at newbury the best bet is to bet the fav for a place so bet Abated to get placed. good luck love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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yet again lost because of the fucking jockey what a disquasting run. love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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in the next I just can not see the sangster horse lose love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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in the next at doncaster I realy do not understand why the hell enrol must be fav so a big lay for me love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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what do u know only 3the easy easy lay love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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in the next at newmarket dreamcatcher must be a lay get on love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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yesterday was a disquasting day for me nothing went right and for my first lay did not went all in soo bad bad day with a lots of bad dessicuns. I am allin in the next at brighton on the fav Little Rainbow to get me out of the hole with that pedigree I can not see her not to fallow up love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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i guess when ur luck will not fallow and this bullshit trainers and jockeys decided to steal the publick there is no need to carry on fucking horse ended last ?? what the hell do we need to concentrate on to try to point out winners? I do not know any more love horses hate jockeys
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Allan Donald Joined: 8/25/2008 Posts: 810 Location: racecourse
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plz explain this to me guys was fed up with fav not running their races so tell my self lets lay a no hoper 2012-08-21 16:12:22 1814 16:15 Brighton Tue Aug 21 Compton Crofter Lay 75 guess what the horse came from 10Ls of the pace and won with a 7L jockey on his back so can anyone plz explain to me if we need to keep betting on uks racing anymore or is all of the industy just rigged?????? love horses hate jockeys
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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i dont think many races are rigged, and i think the days of the senior jockeys bullying the juniors in the changing room are long gone. no, stretching the rules, and other manipulations of the handicap system, are fair game imo. you just lay a 75s winner did you. i will tell you a couple of things to look out for with exchange prices above 25s. there has been 437,398 horses run with a bfsp since it was introduced, out of those 145,710 have started 25s or larger. 2765 have won at an average price of 47s, 142,398 have lost. if you would have backed them all to level 1pt stakes, you would be down after comm -12,512 pts. now the interesting bit. the losers average traded volume pre-off was 6,364 pounds each, and the winners pre-off average traded volume was 8,956 pounds each. thats about 40 percent higher, that just proves that the winners are no surprise to some. wanna piece of the action, back all the outsiders, but only back the ones that have traded more than 15,000 pound pre-off, you can see the traded volumes on their charts. doing the above would have refined your bets down from 145,710 to 8,812,of which 316 would have won, at an average price of +32s, producing a nett level stake 1pt win profit after comm of 878.4pts. so my advice with the outsiders is simple, follow the smart money. edited to add, turf and all-weather only produces the bulk of the profit, NH shows a loss even with 15k+ plus traded volume. turf/all weather qualifiers were 5,807, of which 234 won, at an average price of 29s, producing a 1pt level stakes nett profit of 1161.4pts after comm at 5pc. or put another way 20p profit on every pound invested. for a long term backing investment project, ive just given you a proper golden nugget. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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Steve Redgrave Joined: 1/12/2007 Posts: 8,110 Location: isle of man
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2.00 york hercul, todays lively outsider is 'the thrill is gone' stalls in middle of track, does the fancied horses a disservice, i fancy this one to take advantage, that 3L 10th at goodwood, running the disadvantaged rail after the split, was good enough to win this, straight down the middle dash from stall 9. 30s bf at present, and drifting, take bfsp. 10 win lay back at 5s for stake. .
Well behaved women do not make history
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