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What Differentiates Long-term Winning and Losing Players? Options
Cold Dog
#1 Posted : Thursday, March 27, 2008 6:54:02 PM
Barack Obama

Joined: 9/20/2005
Posts: 16,519

Interesting read from Pinnacle:

As a general rule there are two groups of gamblers betting on sports - those who hope to profit, and those who expect to profit. The vast majority of gamblers belong to the first group, and always will, because their actions contradict their intentions. There is no simple secret to attaining long-term profitability in sports betting. All professional players serve a long apprenticeship, but if you aspire to join this elite group, there are some myths that need to be exploded, and some basic concepts that you need to come to grips with, in order to make the transition from 'casual' to 'professional'.

Evolving from Casual to Professional
At Pinnacle Sports we categorise a professional player (or 'sharp') as one who we expect to win over the long-term. How can we tell if any given player will be a consistent winner going forward? The most accurate way is to compare the odds a player received when they placed a bet with the closing price for that particular market.

If a player consistently beats our closing price at, they are likely to be a long-term winner. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more indicative of a player's future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.

For example, our closing Asian Handicap price on Manchester Utd. versus Man City in the recent Derby was (-1/2) 1.909, so if a customer played (-1/2) 1.962 earlier in the week - that was a sharp bet, regardless of whether the bet won or lost. When a player can anticipate the line movement and does this consistently over a series of 100 bets or more, that player is conclusively sharp, and likely to register substantial profits in the long run if applying the same approach.

What's the quickest way to identify a player that needs to adjust their style of betting? Simple - one who plays at a 'bad' price. If other online bookmakers offered a closing price on Man City at (+1/2) 1.869 and a player bet that price, instead of taking the superior odds of (+1/2) 2.02 available at, he is almost certainly not sharp. Even if he has been winning thus far, that player will probably lose over time.

Dr. Curlytek
#2 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2008 7:26:10 AM
Wang Tao

Joined: 1/5/2006
Posts: 1,736
Location: Melbourne, Australia

Well, an interesting advert at Pinnacle, but the concept of being able to play the right side of a moving line consistently representing shrewdness is sound.
Lay Low21
#3 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2008 9:33:00 AM
Carl Lewis

Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 8,360
Location: isle of man

hardly ground breaking stuff doc...

most sports betting is on 2 teams with backing one team being the equivalent of laying the other .. trouble is joe bloggs has no idea whether the 11/10 evens or 10/11 etc is value or not and will bet at the available odds eventually losing a percentage of his overall bank...

example for long term players .. take something simple like tossing a coin 50/50 heads or tails ..
bookmaker prices 10/11 the 2 results... overall the book has an 10% edge which will win out over time...

your shrewdie however will have the patience ro wait for a rick/offer thats in his favour i.e. 11/10 on above scenario as his methods of winning overall include the discipline of not being tempted to bet a bad value price ..
i.e. 10/11 heads after 20 tails in a row may seem ok to some .. where as each spin is a seperate event and has no bearing on the result of the following spin .. and a shrewdie would be laying the 10/11..

a pro then proceeds to back the over-prices ..
however he does the opposite of you ordinary joe..
joe bloggs finds a 20/1 shot in horse race he thinks has an outstanding chance and represents great value against its true odds of winning..
but because its 20/1 joe who normally bets in £20s backs it for a tenner £10 and is delighted if he gets a result...

a pro sees the same scenario differently and estimate that at the most the horse is a 5/1 shot and takes full advantage and backs the animal for £60 to every £20 he would normally place and if the bet wins its just numbers on a screen and is unaffected emotionally .. same if it loses .. however if it loses for joe he pats himself on the back and thinks he saved a tenner...
while our pro in the example sits back and waits patiently for his next opportunity to bet a rick ... joe is doing his normal churn of bets .. mostly taking prices being offered at less than the true odds obviously as bookmakers are massive organisations with hefty over-heads and slowly but surely losing ...


Well behaved women do not make history

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