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Nigel Mansell  Joined: 4/4/2007 Posts: 601 Location: Melbourne  
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Does anyone have thoughts on who will win this? I'm just looking at the markets and Brandon Knight is at 13s to win it. Is it worth my effort to throw some money his way?  "I'm going to see the horse doctor today. How the horse became a doctor, I'll never know." Dwight K. Schrute.
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Barack Obama  Joined: 9/20/2005 Posts: 16,516
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Here are the current odds from Sportsbook.com
D Williams $3.50
K Walker $6.25
J Fredette $6.50
K Irving $7.00
R Rubio $8.50
E Kanter $8.50
B Knight $12.00
K Thompson $15.00
M Morris $21.00
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Barack Obama  Joined: 9/24/2005 Posts: 15,003 Location: Australia
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Irving $7?? Damn - I thought he'd be the $3.50 favourite  nice to see Kemba and Jimmer right up there 
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Nigel Mansell Joined: 4/4/2007 Posts: 601 Location: Melbourne
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Besides Williams as favourite, I have a completely different market. Kemba ain't even in there but will be in there as "Any Unlisted Player". Still don't know if I should bet on Knight or not. "I'm going to see the horse doctor today. How the horse became a doctor, I'll never know." Dwight K. Schrute.
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/24/2005 Posts: 15,003 Location: Australia
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Irving will get a lot more mins than Williams though wont he?
I mean Derrick Williams will probably end up in a timeshare with Beasley unless the Wolves move Love to C, which is possible..
But Cavs basically handing over the keys to Kyrie with them waiving Baron Davis. Sessions was starting in preseason but no way does that last..
I rate them
1. Kyrie
2. Kemba
in terms of where I project the rookies stats output for this season
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Shane Warne  Joined: 1/15/2006 Posts: 1,809
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What am I missing here? Kyrie Irving @ $7.00? Sounds like a great bet. Kemba Walker @ $6.00 seems okay too. It's only a matter of time before he takes DJ Augustin's starting role. I think it's fairly open, but like Thumb, I would have thought Irving would be the favourite.
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Phil Taylor  Joined: 5/26/2006 Posts: 2,598 Location: Perth WA
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At this stage Kemba would be in the lead, he's the only game winner on the team now with S-Jax and Wallace gone, he's already hit a game winner in the pre-season, great odds for him. Kyrie and Williams will do ok, but don't think they will great till a few years. Surprised to see Tristan Thompson not in the race, he could be a dark horse.
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Jesse Owens  Joined: 7/25/2006 Posts: 6,191 Location: Malaysia
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Money on irving 7.00 and knight 14.00!!
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/20/2005 Posts: 16,516
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Irving at $7.00 is ridiculous value, I wonder how of a bet they would take at that price.
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/20/2005 Posts: 16,516
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Indeed sportsbet.com is a joke. Checked them out, they have bad reviews for not paying out... funny that.
I got my bets down at $6.00 which I still think is great value. All he has to do is beat out Sessions and he'll produce big numbers.
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Jesse Owens Joined: 7/25/2006 Posts: 6,191 Location: Malaysia
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Anyone watch today's T-Wolves game? Think Rubio could be a dark horse. Clearly by far the best passer/ballhandler in this year's draft which is loaded with PGs. Made some amazing plays in the game.
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/24/2005 Posts: 15,003 Location: Australia
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After today I'm leaning towards Kemba
especially if Augustin is gimpy and misses time - it'll allow an opening for him to take the starting spot and put up some big stats
if he can help Bobcats get some wins he's in with a real shot
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/24/2005 Posts: 15,003 Location: Australia
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here's some interesting stats to look at for the first few games.. very small sample size since they've only played ~2 games each but kinda interesting to see what these guys may be capable of when they start getting more consistent minutes  per 36min stats for the top rookies so far: Kemba Walker 23.7pts, 7.0rebs, 5.3ast, 1.8stl, 47%fg 0.9treys Kyrie Irving15.7pts, 5.5rebs 11.0ast, 2.3stl, 33%fg, 0.8treys Derrick Williams13.7pts, 9.4rebs, 1.7ast, 0.9stl, 41%fg Brandon Knight25.6pts, 1.6reb, 4.8ast, 2.4stl, 59%fg, 4.8treys Tristan Thompson20.6pts, 7.7rebs, 0.9ast, 0.9stl, 1.7blk, 64%fg Jimmer Fredette11.5pts, 1.4rebs, 3.6ast, 39%fg, 0.7treys
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/24/2005 Posts: 15,003 Location: Australia
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Kyrie has to be the favourite so far
Marshon Brooks has been decent too scoring 17+ in 5 of his last 6 games but he rolled his ankle tonight
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Shane Warne Joined: 1/15/2006 Posts: 1,809
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Thumbboy wrote:Kyrie has to be the favourite so far
Marshon Brooks has been decent too scoring 17+ in 5 of his last 6 games but he rolled his ankle tonight Complete agree Pete. Kyrie Irving is the best chance - he's starting and guaranteed big minutes. That's clearly a prequisite for ROY.
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Jesse Owens Joined: 7/25/2006 Posts: 6,191 Location: Malaysia
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My vote's on Rubio. Think as the season progresses and they get rid of Ridnour he'll really show what he can do for the team in terms of creating plays.
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/20/2005 Posts: 16,516
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I think it's Kyrie's to lose. At this point it really looks like only Marshon and Rubio have emerged as contenders. It's going to come down to what the teams do. The Cavs are 3-3, Wolves 2-4, and Nets 1-5. I doubt they will give the award to guy whose team wins 10 games in a season just because he puts up 17ppg. Rubio is a chance but he'll need to translate his play into results for the team. 10 assists today, nice number, but he also committed 4 TOs and his team lost at home to lowly Memphis.
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/24/2005 Posts: 15,003 Location: Australia
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I had a bet on Memphis +4.5 so was following that game. Rubio had some nice stats but still, Ridnour is a coach's player.
He's been getting solid mins and holding back young players with lots of upside for years now, because he's a fundamentally sound pg that coaches can trust to distribute the ball and run their offense.
I think Rubio could be All Rookie Team material, but Irving has the highest ceiling of anyone in this draft class.
20pts 3rebs 6ast 2blk 2threes 8/10fg in just 21mins yesterday?
Once he starts getting a consistent 30-32mpg+ his stats will be pretty huge
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Jesse Owens Joined: 7/25/2006 Posts: 6,191 Location: Malaysia
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But I think come end of the season T-Wolves will definitely finish with a better record than the Cavs. With Love & Beasley being the main scorers, Rubio's role is clearly to create/facilitate the offense, while Kyrie is going to be expected to put up points. Kyrie is playing on a totally shit Cleveland team who's other best player is a washed-up Antawn Jamison. So he's going to put up 20pts on any given night. So far I've watched maybe 2 Twolves games and 2 Cavs games..based on those alone it just feels like Rubio has a much bigger impact on the games when he's on the floor. Especially the one vs Miami where he was pushing the pace and really causing problems for the Heat with this passing. I think long-term Rubio might actually turn into a Nash-type playmaker (OK, he needs a LOT of work on his jumper)
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Phil Taylor Joined: 5/26/2006 Posts: 2,598 Location: Perth WA
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Don't rule out Tristan Thompson, if he can cut out a better min share than Jamison he'd be close to pulling double doubles each night.
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/20/2005 Posts: 16,516
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I agree Jvalles. Tristan won't win ROY but he'll put up big numbers in the last few weeks of the season when the Cavs pull the plug.
Freak - Minnesota are terrible... you named Love who is really their only quality starter and Beasley who is an absolute joker and wouldn't be starting on 90% of NBA teams (13, 6 and 3TOs, putrid numbers). Then there's Wes Johnson and Darko. It doesn't get much scarier than that. They went 17-65 last year and they'll be lucky to top that.
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/20/2005 Posts: 16,516
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Rubio is easily the front runner for ROY now that he's starting, playing close to 40MPG and putting up monster numbers. Today was insane, 18, 12 and 5 steals, these are unheard of numbers from a rookie! Irving is being hurt by the fact that his coach is playing him as a started but with 6th man minutes. If I had to price up the market now, it would be Rubio $1.40, Irving $3.00, The Field $50.00. Still a long way to go though...
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/24/2005 Posts: 15,003 Location: Australia
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I'd put them a little closer than that but Rubio does have the advantage with the extra playing time
Kemba Walker played 40mins+ today too and responded with 23-4-5-2-1 in his first game as a starter
Irving has a lot of highlight reel plays, watching him against the Lakers he was slicing thru the defense pretty easily and getting some nifty reverse layups over Bynum.
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Barack Obama Joined: 9/20/2005 Posts: 16,516
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In the end, Irving wins this by default. But had Rubio not gone down, he was easily ahead (I think around $1.10) anyway. Irving has been tearing up the league, hitting game winners and coming up big in the 4th, while Rubio fell into a deep slump (<30% shooting and a drop in assists). It's not how I wanted to win the bet but I'll take it. Final numbers were: $300 @ $6.00 and $300 @ $5.50 (William Hill) and $300 @ $6.00 (188Bet). 
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Phil Taylor Joined: 5/26/2006 Posts: 2,598 Location: Perth WA
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Nice work! 
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